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Ambassador Cesar B. Cabrera
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We in Seychelles, are fast developing a well defined tradition of democratic elections. Over the past two years the people have chosen in turn, their President and then their representatives in the National Assembly.
At the moment, many Seychellois, like most of the world are focussed on the elections taking place not on home soil, but rather in the world’s most developed country, the USA. The electing of a US President always captures international attention, but this year, the process is especially riveting as, the choosing of the candidates who will represent each party in the November elections, especially on the side of the democrats is turning into a real tight race.
The American Republican Party has already decided that John McCain will represent their colours, but Barrack Obama and Hilary Clinton are still battling it out on the democrats side to see who will be nominated.
This week the American Ambassador to Seychelles, Cabrera who is currently in the country, held a press conference to explain some aspects of the USA elections and how it works. The People newspaper was also present at the conference and today we share with you some defining characteristics of the American race for the presidency.
AS Ambassador Cabrera explained the choosing of an American president is a two fold process. There are the Primary elections and the General elections. During the primaries, the political parties hold elections to decide which candidate they will nominate to represent them in the general elections, when the president is elected.
The presidential election is held every four years and this is always on the first Tuesday after the first Monday of the month of November. Therefore in this way everyone knows exactly when a presidential election will be held and so there is no speculating about the dates. Before that the States hold caucuses or primary elections to choose delegates to their national nominating conventions, where the party nominees are selected.
These usually happen between January and June with the conventions following in July, August or September. This nomination by the Convention is similar in a way to our local scenario where both the two major parties nominate their candidate during their National Convention or Congress as is the case with the SPPF.
More than one
contender
However while here, there is only one candidate for the convention or congress to decide on, in the USA, right up to convention time there may still be more than one contender hoping to be nominated as party candidate again as is the case currently in the camp of the American democrats. Usually the convention would be mostly only ceremonial as the candidates who will represent the parties are generally known before as they would have amassed a majority of delegates before the primary is concluded.
However like in other democracies, an American presidential candidate does not necessarily have to come from a political party. Like here, independent candidates can also run, if they meet the criteria. That is if they are able to submit a specified number of petition signatures. A presidential hopeful must be a natural born American citizen, be of at least 35 years of age and must have resided in the USA for at least 14 years. Ratified by the American Republic in 1787, the Constitution of the USA through its 22nd amendment, only allows a person to hold the office of president for more than twice. Here in Seychelles a president can hold office for three consecutive terms.
Who can vote?
Any American citizen who is 18 years of age and over and is registered as a voter can vote. Ambassador Cabrera explained that no matter where an American citizen is, if there are provisions in place in that location that person can cast a vote in an election, provided he or she is a registered voter. As such an American citizen residing in Seychelles, or who is here on holiday can still vote, through the arrangements made in place such as at embassies. These votes are sent on to the USA for counting and are classed as absentee votes. Although much information about how to vote can be gleaned from the internet, Ambassador Cabrebra says that as yet the USA has not evolved a system of internet voting
How is the winner decided?
Unlike most democracies where the person who gets the most number of votes is usually the winner, in the USA, the choice of who will be President is not as straightforward as that instead the American President is not elected by the people outright, but rather by the group of the people’s representative.
These representatives are called super delegates and the system is called the Electoral College. Although generally speaking the person who wins the most votes is usually the person who will get the most super delegates voting for him or her, the last time the American public voted for a president, Georges W Bush got less popular votes than democratic candidate Al Gore, but won the presidency nevertheless as he won more votes in the electoral college. What is the Electoral College?
The Electoral College is a group of citizens designated by the states to cast votes for the president and the Vice President on behalf of the states’ citizens.
Although the process of choosing electors vary from state to state, usually the political parties nominate them at State Party Conventions; or by a vote of the Party’s Central Committee. The voting public in each state by casting votes for president and vice president , choose the electors on the day of the general elections.
The Electoral College system gives each state the same number of electoral votes as it has members of Congress. There are a total of 538 votes in the Electoral College; a candidate for president must win 270 votes to win with a simple majority. The electors gather in their state capitals to cast their votes in December. The votes are then sent to Washington where they are counted in a joint session of Congress in January.
The candidates
To become a party’s nominee for president, a candidate must win the support of a majority of delegates to the party’s national convention in the summer of 2008.
Arizona Senator John McCain has earned the 1,191 pledged delegates he needs to be the Republican Party’s presumed presidential nominee, but the race to amass a majority of delegates in the Democratic contest continues.
McCain will not become the official Republican Party nominee until his party’s delegates cast their votes at the Republican National Convention in September.
The charts below show the standing of the candidates from the Democratic party at the beginning of April.
Ambassador Cabrera explained that the Democratic party awards its delegates proportionally, so that if a candidate receives more than 15 percent of the vote, he or she will receive a percentage of the state’s delegates. Therefore, both Clinton and Obama likely will continue to earn delegates from each state and territory, making it now extremely unlikely that either will earn enough pledged delegates to declare victory. If this happens, attention will turn to the 794 super delegates, who are not pledged, or bound, to vote for a particular candidate
As for the Republican Party, they use a winner takes all approach, which is why their candidate is more or less decided by now and the Democrats still have to wait.
Will the long dragged out campaign not affect the Democrats’ chances of winning the presidential elections?
This is a fact which is causing some concern in the Party’s ranks. Democratic leaders increasingly are concerned that a prolonged nominating contest could hurt their candidate’s chances in a general election against McCain. These leaders are encouraging the superdelegates to make their preferences known before the convention so that a count will not be necessary on the convention floor in late August to determine the party nominee. Currently 246 superdelegates have announced they will vote for Clinton and 212 say they will vote for Obama, according to the Green Papers.
Obama maintains a narrow lead in the delegate count, leads the popular vote and has won the most votes in more states’ contests. Some Obama supporters argue that, based on these factors, Clinton should exit the race now. However Senator Clinton has vowed to go all the way.
The Democratic Party has said it does not plan to count Michigan’s 128 pledged delegates or Florida’s 185 pledged delegates at its convention because those states violated party rules by holding their primaries prior to February 5. As a result of that ruling, Democratic candidates did not campaign in those states. Barack Obama and most other Democratic candidates removed their names from the Michigan ballot.
Each state attempted to develop plans for holding new elections in June to allow another opportunity for their delegates to be awarded, but those attempts failed. The party currently is considering options to allow the states’ delegations to participate in some fashion.
Clinton dubbed
This week the Pennsylvania State held its primaries. This was the largest state left to hold primary elections and its outcome has not surprised many as Hilary Clinton was dubbed to win the state. Early Wednesday morning (Seychelles time) the results showed her winning 55% to Obama’s 45% of the votes counted. Analysts had said that unless Clinton won in Pennsylvania, she would have had to exit the race, but now it looks like she will set in.
The Senator has admitted to having financial constraints, but has vowed to go on.
The next important state to hold its primary is now Indiana and already both sides are focussing their attention on the voters there. It is expected that the race for the nomination in that Party may be decided by July.
For their part, the Republicans will elect at least 2,380 delegates. The Party punished Wyoming, New Hampshire, Michigan, Florida and South Carolina for scheduling their primaries before February 5. These states will only have half their delegates counted. Arizona Senator John McCain has earned more than the 1,191 delegates needed to win the nomination.
Voter participation
During the past two elections in the USA voter turnout has been somewhat low, with only around 41% casting their votes in 2006 in the midterm elections and around 61% voting in the 2004 presidential elections. Studies suggest that this could be due in some part to the current registration laws. Other reason put forward include the demographic composition of the electorate, long periods of stability and predictable outcomes as well as some candidates’ lack of popular appeal.
However it goes and whatever its outcome the whole world is watching as the USA chooses the man or woman who will lead it for the coming four years. Each of the three contenders (since the Democratic candidate is not yet known) present a first if they are elected. Senator Clinton, will if she accedes the presidency be the first woman to do so, Obama, will become America’s first black President and Republican’s McCain will if he wins, become America’s oldest president elect!
We thank the ambassador for giving us an insight in the process of choosing the leader of the land of opportunities